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A poll of registered voters in Illinois' 17th Congressional District shows about 40 percent of those surveyed would vote to re-elect Congressman Phil Hare (D-Rock Island) if the election were held today.
The poll, commissioned by QuincyNews.org, was conducted by We Ask America on November 22 between 4:30 PM - 6:30. In all, 15,000 random residential phone numbers of registered voters in the 17th Congressional District were dialed, resulting in 1,278 people taking the poll. The numbers dialed were randomly selected.
The results have a margin of error of ±2.74 %.
The first question of the poll asked: "If the election for your Member of Congress were held today, would you likely vote to re-elect Phil Hare?"
A. Yes 39.59%
B. No 47.03%
C. Unsure 13.38%
The poll did not ask directly about opponents who have filed to run against Hare in the general election, including Republican Bobby Schilling of Colona and Roger K. Davis of Quincy, who has filed as a Green Party candidate.
Pollster Gregg Durham said the numbers are more of an indictment of the public's overall feeling toward Congress.
"If you don't have an opponent (listed in the survey), that becomes a generic question on Congress," Durham said. "It's not only about Hare's performance, but how people are looking at Congress. The average person doesn't follow what their own congressman is doing."
"It's a general tendency question to ask. If you don't know the opponent, you don't know Phil Hare. Trust me, this isn't good for any incumbent, but it's not quite as clear that this guy is in trouble. If an opponent is adequately funded and has good communications skills, this race could be competitive.
As you might expect, Hare did well among Democrats and poorly among Republicans, but those who call themselves Independent seem to be trending away from Hare.
POLITICAL AFFILIATION Yes-Hare No-Hare Unsure
1. Democrat 74.47% 12.41% 13.11%
2. Republican 8.91% 81.90% 9.20%
3. Independent 29.90% 56.13% 13.97%
"The independents are very strong against the re-elect there is a tendency there to look for something else," Durham said. "Either (Hare) has not done enough to warrant favor with the electorate or they have had it...a throw the bums out mentality that is reflective of much of Congress right now."
Another question asked of the voters was which of the following issues will have the most impact on your vote for your Congressman next November?
A. Jobs 42.34%
B. Health care reform 22.04%
C. Govt spending 23.28%
D. Energy costs 5.55%
E. None of these 6.79%
Here is a breakdown of where the respondents came from. The county is listed, followed by the number and the percentage:
Rock Island 330 25.82%
Adams 165 12.91%
Macoupin 99 7.75%
Macon 87 6.81%
Knox 87 6.81%
Hancock 70 5.48%
Fulton 68 5.32%
Whiteside 61 4.77%
McDonough 60 4.69%
Henry 58 4.54%
Sangamon 44 3.44%
Warren 35 2.74%
Mercer 33 2.58%
Henderson 21 1.64%
Christian 11 0.86%
Montgomery 10 0.78%
Pike 10 0.78%
Calhoun 9 0.70%
Jersey 8 0.63%
Greene 6 0.47%
Fayette 3 0.23%
Madison 2 0.16%
Shelby 1 0.08%
Total 1278
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Posts: 1
Reply #1 on : Wed November 25, 2009, 10:20:35